Research | Roundhill Investments

Roundhill Thematic Year in Review

Written by Thomas DiFazio | December 23, 2025

With 2026 on the horizon, investors face the prospect of a shifting policy landscape with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and a macroeconomic environment that continues to evolve. In our view, many of 2025’s dominant market themes have staying power. To highlight these enduring forces and their potential implications for 2026, we have curated a selection of our favorite actionable charts sourced from our thematic ETF suite.

Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven began 2025 with sharp downside price action following an extraordinary 2024. On April 8th, the group was down more than 25% year-to-date. Since then, the Magnificent Seven staged a powerful rally of over 65%, now sitting at roughly 25% year-to-date. Despite being treated as a single cohort, the Magnificent Seven displayed surprisingly low correlations in 2025, an overlooked benefit that provided investors with unexpected diversification. With a track record of meaningful individual contributions to overall market returns and index profits, we see the Magnificent Seven as a key structural force as we look ahead to 2026.

Looking to access the dominant profit engines of the U.S. equity market? Consider the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) for targeted exposure to mega-cap leadership.

Generative AI

The AI investment cycle remains underway, supported by a more than 70% increase in combined estimated capex from the Magnificent Seven over the past year. Competition is intensifying with 2026 looming as major platforms begin to challenge Nvidia’s dominance. Google introduced its seventh-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), TPU v7 “Ironwood,” which delivers higher training and inference performance at large scale, while Meta advanced its own custom accelerator efforts. This rising competition is likely to drive wider return dispersion after a year of robust gains. Multiple expansion will likely grow more challenging, making active management increasingly important as the industry continues to evolve.

Looking to capture the next phase of AI innovation as competition increases and return dispersion widens? Consider the Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT).

Humanoid Robotics

Humanoid robotics remains in the early stages of adoption, but 2025 brought a clear acceleration in both technological progress and policy attention. The White House is considering an executive order in 2026 that would provide funding or incentives for humanoid robotics, signaling rising federal support for the sector. This initiative reflects a broader recognition of robotics as a strategic area of competition with China, with companies seeking federal backing to advance automation, supply chains, and deployment. These developments, alongside increasing international visibility such as the 2025 Humanoids Summit, position humanoid robotics as a theme with meaningful momentum over the long term.

Looking to gain early exposure to the convergence of AI, automation, and humanoid robotics? Consider the Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF (HUMN).

Market Volatility

Volatility in 2025 has been defined by an unusually wide trading backdrop, with the average daily intraday range for the S&P 500 reaching 1.78%. 72% of trading days saw ranges greater than 1% and 27% saw ranges greater than 2%, the highest levels since 2022’s bear market. A new era of deglobalization catalyzed by tariffs paired with dropping expectations for meaningful Fed rate cuts added to the unsettled environment. 2026 will bring its own set of challenges, including the U.S. midterm elections. Ongoing policy uncertainty and shifting macro expectations point to elevated volatility remaining a consistent feature rather than a temporary disruption.

Looking to exploit elevated market volatility for the opportunity of weekly income? Consider Roundhill’s 0DTE option income suite of QDTE, XDTE, and RDTE.

GLP-1 & Weight Loss Drugs

GLP-1 and weight-loss therapies have become one of the most important sources of growth within healthcare, supported by rising adoption of drugs targeting obesity. A recent Gallup poll found that U.S. adult usage of weight-loss medications has more than doubled from the first quarter of 2024 to the second half of 2025. Pfizer’s acquisition of Metsera further highlighted how major pharmaceutical companies are expanding their presence in this fast-growing category. As next-generation GLP-1 and metabolic therapies advance, the landscape is evolving into a broader and more competitive ecosystem.

Looking to tap into one of healthcare’s most important sources of growth? Consider the Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (OZEM).

Cannabis

Despite low odds of occurring before 2026, President Trump signed an executive order on December 18 rescheduling marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. For the medical community, this move paves the way for accredited medical research into cannabis-based treatments. For multi-state cannabis operators (MSOs), this change eliminates the application of IRS Section 280E, which currently prohibits cannabis businesses from deducting ordinary business expenses. This change provides crucial tax relief that could save operators billions annually, offering the potential for material improvement in profitability and free cash flow. Marijuana remains illegal at the federal level, but the regulatory easing could be a powerful tailwind heading into 2026.

Looking to position around evolving U.S. cannabis policy? Consider the Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED).

China

China remains one of the most controversial markets while the underlying data points to a constructive equity backdrop. In 2025, Chinese equities have shown improving breadth and sustained upward momentum, with roughly 75% of the Hang Seng Index now trading above their 200-day moving average. Leadership from major Chinese innovators, many of which are emerging players in AI and humanoid robotics, has reinforced this strength and suggests that a durable bull market is already underway despite persistent skepticism. The combination of a constructive technical backdrop, sector leadership, and exposure to key innovation themes warrants optimism as we move into 2026.

Looking to access China’s biggest technology innovators amid a strengthening technical backdrop? Consider the Roundhill China Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGC).

Video Games

The gaming industry entered 2025 with renewed attention around Grand Theft Auto VI, but the latest delay highlights how long the development cycle has become. GTA VI is tracking at more than 1,000 days from announcement date to release date. While this has frustrated players and added uncertainty to near-term expectations, it has not dampened momentum across the broader industry. AI is beginning to play a more noticeable role in parts of the development process. Meanwhile, IGN reported that the Nintendo Switch 2 sold 10.36 million units between June 5 and September 30, a record-breaking figure that cements its position as the biggest console launch ever. While the GTA VI delay likely elicited a collective groan from eagerly anticipating players, the strength of recent console sales and ongoing engagement trends supports a constructive outlook for the gaming ecosystem.

Looking to participate in the global video game ecosystem across publishers, platforms, and hardware cycles? Consider the Roundhill Video Games & Esports ETF (NERD).

Sports Betting & iGaming

Year-to-date through October, legalized sports betting in 38 states and Washington D.C. generated nearly $75 billion in revenue, a 12% increase compared with the same period in 2024. Live betting and in-game microbets are likely contributors to higher user activity and sustained momentum across the ecosystem. Growth in live betting, in-game bets, and the ongoing flood of sportsbook advertising on television have all contributed to heightened consumer engagement. With regulatory expansion continuing and user behavior shifting toward more frequent, app-based interaction, the broader outlook for the category remains constructive with 2026 on the horizon.

Looking to access the continued expansion of mobile sports betting and online gaming? Consider the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ).

Crypto

Recent volatility in Bitcoin has unnerved many investors, but the scale of the pullback in 2025 is fully consistent with the asset’s established price action. This year alone, Bitcoin has experienced 10 pullbacks of at least 10%, and 7 of them were larger than 15%. The longer-term data tells a similar story: since 2010, Bitcoin’s median annual drawdown has been about 48%, while 2025’s maximum drawdown to date is 32.7%. The recent weakness is not out of the ordinary for Bitcoin, and we expect this type of volatility to persist into the future.

Looking to gain income-oriented exposure to digital assets while recognizing volatility as a feature of the asset class? Consider the Roundhill Bitcoin Covered Call Strategy ETF (YBTC) and the Roundhill Ether Covered Call Strategy ETF (YETH).

Metaverse

Metaverse enthusiasm reached peak euphoria in 2021, with story counts and media attention surging to extraordinary levels. Since then, interest has dissipated significantly, as reflected in the steady collapse in mentions over the past three years and even Meta’s recent decision to reduce the budget of its Reality Labs metaverse division by up to 30%. Despite this, price action from the players within the ecosystem have been resilient. The Ball Metaverse Index is up more than 35% YTD, creating a striking divergence between performance and narrative. The chart highlights this disconnect clearly: the metaverse has become an overlooked theme at a time when underlying companies are showing persistent strength. The strategic approach to the metaverse revolution appears to be evolving, and its close ties with AI and crypto may help unlock its potential. 

Looking to gain exposure to immersive computing, digital infrastructure, and virtual interaction while the theme remains underappreciated? Consider the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (METV).

Robotaxi

The autonomous vehicle and robotaxi market is still best known through its U.S. West Coast presence, where Waymo dominates. While the market remains small today, the growth potential across two massive markets in North America and China is staggering. Goldman Sachs research suggests that by 2030, the TAM for North America and China could grow to $7.3 billion and $11.7 billion dollars, respectively, with even more room to grow as the industry matures and commercialization materializes. While early days, the benefits of autonomous vehicles and robotaxi deployment appear attractive, with the potential for labor cost savings and margin expansion while offering superior driver safety and a transformation to how consumers experience transportation.

 

 

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Roundhill Financial Inc. serves as the investment advisor. The Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC which is not affiliated with Roundhill Financial Inc., U.S. Bank, or any of their affiliates.