Research | Roundhill Investments

AI Earnings: The Haves and the Have-Nots

Written by Dave Mazza | September 17, 2025

Generative AI After Earnings: Key Takeaways

Post Broadcom’s strong results, it’s clear the generative AI trade remains intact. Earnings reinforced three themes: spending is accelerating, capacity, not demand, is the constraint, and leadership is widening. Earnings per share (EPS) beats were rewarded, misses were punished, and the “haves vs. have-nots” story played out across the space.

Source: Bloomberg as of 9/5/2025, See disclosures below for a full list of all Generative AI names within the Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)

What We Learned

  • Semis: Picks and shovels remain the profit leaders. Next-gen architectures are shipping into tight supply chains, while custom silicon and rack-scale platforms deepen moats.
  • AI Infrastructure: GPU “neo-hyperscalers,” Ethernet backbone, and interconnection providers are scaling fast to meet contracted demand.
  • Hyperscalers: The capex race has shifted from story to commitment and is increasingly converting into revenue. Power and grid access are now the gating factors.
  • Software: Monetization is building, if uneven. Leaders are adding AI into existing contracts and winning larger deals, while others guided more cautiously.

What Changed This Season vs. Last

  • AI is everywhere. 58% of S&P 500 companies referenced AI during Q2 2025 earnings calls, a sharp rise from prior quarters.
  • Capex is accelerating. Magnificent Seven capital spending rose 66% y/y. Alphabet lifted 2025 capex to ~$85B, Microsoft telegraphed >$30B in a single quarter, and Amazon kept capex elevated while pushing AI capacity.
  • Power is the bottleneck. Grid access is now gating delivery timelines and site selection. AWS explicitly called power its single biggest constraint, and industry research reinforces the point.
  • Leaders pulled further ahead. NVIDIA’s Blackwell ramp and Broadcom’s AI semi growth showed how custom silicon and rack-scale platforms extended their lead. In software, AI adoption separated winners from “meets-but-guides-soft.”

Our Outlook: Bullish, but Balanced

Macro headwinds including inflation, export controls, policy, and energy are known and increasingly discounted in leadership names. The more important signal is that hyperscaler spend keeps climbing while revenue conversion improves. Valuations are full, but they’re supported by growth, cash flow, and line-of-sight return of investment.

This is not 2000 redux. Today’s leaders are monetizing real businesses with real demand. The defining theme is the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots: companies with custom silicon, rack-scale platforms, or proven AI adoption are pulling further ahead, while those without clear AI leverage are struggling to keep pace. We expect that divide to continue shaping the trade.

Investing in the AI Leaders: Three Ways to Play It

AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a build-out. The future is being funded in real time with infrastructure monetizing today, software stacking over the next 12–24 months, and markets are rewarding the true leaders. 

For investors, separating the haves from the have-nots in AI is no small task. Earnings show the winners are widening their lead, but the challenge is identifying and accessing those leaders without constantly picking individual stocks. That’s where actively managed ETFs can help:

  • The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) offers exposure to the largest and most dominant tech companies driving the AI boom. Think of Meta and NVIDIA, firms with the scale, balance sheets, and CapEx to shape the future of generative AI.

  • The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) zeroes in on companies at the forefront of building and deploying generative AI models and infrastructure. This includes emerging leaders like Nebius and CoreWeave that are rapidly scaling in this space.

  • The Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF (HUMN) provides a different angle: embodied intelligence. By pairing AI with robotics, companies in HUMN are tackling labor shortages and unlocking entirely new industrial use cases.

Each ETF provides a distinct pathway into AI, whether through the tech giants funding the arms race, the pure-play innovators building next-gen AI platforms, or the robotics companies extending AI into the physical world. Together, they offer a toolkit for investors who want to participate in the AI build-out without betting on just one company or even one sector.

Glossary

Earnings per share (EPS) is a commonly used measure of a company's profitability. It indicates how much profit each outstanding share of common stock has earned. 

Disclosures

MAGS Top 10 Holdings (as of 9/15/25)

CHAT Top 10 Holdings (as of 9/15/25)

HUMN Top 10 Holdings (as of 9/15/25)

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