In early January, Roundhill Investments conducted its first-ever market outlook survey, asking participants to share their expectations for S&P 500 performance, the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the trajectory of bitcoin, their most and least favored asset classes, the biggest risk to the market, the significance of the 2026 midterm elections, and their favorite and least favorite Magnificent Seven stocks.
With 2026 having just finished its first month of trading, we believe these aggregated results offer valuable insight into current market sentiment. Let’s dig in.
The S&P 500 in 2025
S&P 500 bears were in the minority when asked where the S&P 500 could end up at the end of 2026. 47.1% thought the S&P 500 would finish up more than 10% while another 45.8% saw single-digit gains. 3.9% of respondents expected a flat S&P 500 and just 3.3% expected a negative S&P 500 return between 0 and 10%.
Takeaway: Survey respondents are bullish!
The Aggressiveness of the Fed
When asked how many interest rate cuts the Fed will perform in 2026, the majority of responses were in line with current market expectations, as 46.41% expected 2 cuts in 2026. However, it was interesting to see that a quarter of respondents expected more than 2 cuts, with 20.3% expecting 3 rate cuts and 5.23% expecting more than 4 cuts.
Takeaway: Fed rate cut expectations are in-line with the market expectations.
The Trajectory of Bitcoin
As of mid-January, since touching 126k on 10/6/25, Bitcoin experienced a drawdown greater than 36% and had yet to recover to the highs seen in 2025. Despite averaging around $93K during the survey window, bitcoin enthusiasm remained intact among respondents. 42.76% expected Bitcoin to trade between 100k to 125k by the end of 2026, while another 28.29% expected Bitcoin to achieve all-time highs and trade above 125k. Roughly 5.25% of respondents expect Bitcoin to trade to lower prices.
Takeaway: Investors are expecting a Bitcoin rally in 2026!
Most Bullish Area in 2026
Mega-cap tech and AI was the area of the market where investors were most optimistic about over the next twelve months, followed by dividend stocks. We also found it interesting that despite the meteoric rise within metals like gold and silver, only 12.34% of respondents said commodities were their favorite area for the next year.
Takeaway: Roundhill investors continue to prefer AI, Mega-cap tech, and dividend stocks.
Most Bullish Asset
Perhaps emblematic of the pronounced bullishness toward mega-cap tech, 44.8% of respondents believe U.S. stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next 12 months, ahead of gold, international stocks, bitcoin/crypto, bonds, and cash. Strong recent price action in gold and a powerful bull market in international stocks helped those two asset classes rank second and third, receiving 23.4% and 15.6% of responses, respectively.
Takeaway: U.S. stocks are expected to remain strong after a robust 2025.
What Asset Are Investors Most Worried About
When polled on what asset worries you most right now, 30.7% of the survey said bitcoin and crypto. We found this response particularly interesting given that 71.5% of respondents expected a bitcoin price of 100k or higher by the end of 2026. The recent shakeout appears to have made crypto bulls nervous. U.S. stocks and cash were the other top responses, while Gold and international stocks being the least concerning for investors.
Takeaway: Bitcoin bulls are a nervous group.
Biggest Market Risk
Government debt and deficits was recorded as the top market risk in our survey with 28.6% of the vote. Geopolitics (27.9%) was the second most popular response. Despite questions on if and when the AI bubble will pop, only 16.2% thought this was the most underpriced risk, while concerns on credit, interest rates, and inflation worry roughly 27% of respondents.
Takeaway: Government Debt & Geopolitics are front of investor’s minds from a risk perspective.
Does the Midterm Election Matter?
44.2% of respondents said the 2026 midterm elections are very important to their investment outlook. Historically, the stock market tends to experience elevated volatility until political outcomes become clearer, which we believe helps explain this survey result. Interestingly, 8.4% of respondents do not factor politics into their investment decisions, which may reflect a longer-term investment horizon.
Takeaway: A majority of investors care about the midterm elections in the U.S.
Most Loved Magnificent Seven Stock
Of the Magnificent Seven, investors preferred GOOGL and NVDA as the most bullish stocks within the group, capturing 28.6% and 27.9% of responses, respectively. This is not altogether surprising, given that GOOGL and NVDA were the only two Magnificent Seven names to outperform the S&P 500 in 2025. Is there a sentiment risk here?
Takeaway: GOOGL and NVDA are favorites after leading the way in 2025.
Most Hated Magnificent Seven Stock
In our view, TSLA has been the most polarizing member of the Magnificent Seven. Capturing 42.5% of survey responses, its clear lead as the most bearish stock makes us wonder whether TSLA could surprise investors to the upside and perhaps even lead the group in 2026. Time will tell.
Takeaway: TSLA continues to polarize investors as a member of the Magnificent Seven and is the most bearish stock of the group.
Tying It Together
In summary, our survey of retail and institutional investors is demonstrative of a group with a clear bullish tilt. Investors appear most bullish on U.S. stocks, mega-cap stocks, and AI. There are some split indications on the true sentiment underpinning Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at large, but we think the results are less contradictory and more emblematic of nerves to protect portfolio gains.
Investors are closely watching government debt and geopolitical backdrops, which makes sense following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela earlier this year. The survey results make it clear that midterm elections matter to investors, but the real question is what that means for stock market performance and volatility in 2026. Last but not least, the Magnificent Seven continue to polarize investors despite their indisputable influence on the stock market. Through the lens of sentiment, GOOGL, NVDA, and TSLA could surprise investors in 2026.
Survey Details
The survey was conducted from January 6, 2026 through January 19, 2026, with 154 participants responding. Respondents included both retail and institutional investors.
Any market data was sourced from Bloomberg.
This information is provided solely as general investment education. None of the information provided should be regarded as a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment related course of action. Investing involves risk, loss of principal is possible.
Not an offer: This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. To the extent that the reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to their specific portfolio or situation, prospective investors are encouraged to contact 1-855-561-5728 or consult with the professional advisor of their choosing.
Forward-looking statements: Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Nothing contained herein may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance or a representation as to the future.
Use of Third-party Information: Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Roundhill Financial Inc. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Roundhill Financial Inc. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Roundhill Financial Inc. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Roundhill Financial Inc. does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date.
Any indices and other financial benchmarks shown are provided for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged, reflect reinvestment of income and dividends and do not reflect the impact of advisory fees. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Except where otherwise indicated, the information contained in this presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation of such material and not as of the date of distribution or any future date. Recipients should not rely on this material in making any future investment decision. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted.
