Many different reasons have been offered for Gold’s surge in 2025…
- The potential for the U.S. dollar losing its status as a global reserve currency,
- The ongoing trend of deglobalization among the world’s biggest trading powers,
- Growing amounts of debt and deficits
- Inflationary pressures
- Rising geopolitical tensions around the globe
- Now, the U.S. government shutdown
Despite the recent focus on why gold’s strong returns, the yellow metal has been a strong performer for some time. Since the start of the 2020s, even without paying a dividend, gold has outperformed the S&P 500’s total return by roughly 32%, registering an annualized 18.1% return compared to 15.5% return for stocks.
In fact, gold’s strength extends well beyond its recent momentum. Over the past two decades, from 12/31/2005 through 10/31/2025, Gold delivered an annualized return of 10.9%, roughly in line with S&P 500’s 11.1% annualized total return.
Gold: A Currency Story?
Gold’s strength is not limited to a certain currency. Regardless of the currency it is priced in, gold trades in a decisive uptrend. This strong trend backdrop has supported robust double digit returns for gold in virtually every currency available for pricing in Bloomberg. The bottom line is that gold’s strength is being confirmed around the world.
There appears to be a structural tailwind underpinning gold’s strength: central banks around the world are increasing their holdings of gold as a safe haven. Gold now makes up ~23% of total foreign reserves, a level that has not been reached since the mid 1990s. The reasons can vary depending on the monetary and fiscal backdrop, but at the minimum, gold seems to be in a structural phase of accumulation by central banks.
Gold Sets the Price. Miners Amplify the Move.
If gold represents the store of value, gold miners represent operating leverage plus exposure to the yellow metal. Miners have historically moved with gold prices (as evidenced by its long-term correlation with gold below), making them a potential way to further express bullish views on the metal.
Gold miner stocks have decisively outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. Through November 5, the Gold Miners index is up 109.44% on a total return basis. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 has moved up +16.76%, a difference of 92.68%. Gold miners have even outpaced AI leader Nvidia in 2025 (NVDA = +45.40% YTD).
Gold miners have backed off from their recent 2025 highs, but are consolidating from a position of strength. 100% of the stocks in the NYSE Arca Gold Miner Index (~50 holdings) are trading above their respective 200-day moving average. In our view, this is a signal of broad participation and strong underlying trends.
WeeklyPay™ Goes for Gold
From a portfolio perspective, gold can be attractive to investors for its diversification potential. Based on monthly returns since 1990, gold does not share a strong positive or negative relationship with the S&P 500. Both financial assets tend to move independently of one another on a month to month basis, bolstering its case as a compelling option for portfolio diversification.
Because gold miners can move closely with gold prices rather than the broader stock market, they offer similar diversification benefits relative to traditional stock allocations, particularly as core equity portfolios continue to grow more concentrated in the Technology sector.
A popular criticism of gold, made famous by Warren Buffett, is that “it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you.” Likewise, gold miners are not widely known for providing consistent income to shareholders. As a result, investors seeking exposure to gold or gold miners have historically had only one main pathway to generate cash flow from these assets: covered call strategies, which can often cap upside for investors who are bullish on the underlying assets.
The Roundhill Gold WeeklyPay™ ETF (GLDW) and the Roundhill Gold Miners WeeklyPay™ ETF (GDXW) take the WeeklyPay™ framework into the gold markets, aiming to deliver consistent weekly income without relying on covered-call strategies that can cap upside. GLDW and GDXW target amplified exposure to gold and gold miners respectively, aligning with investors who are constructively bullish on the space.
Gold can be a cornerstone of portfolios seeking diversification, inflation protection, and resilience amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and record sovereign debt levels. Now investors can pair that exposure with weekly distribution potential and amplified market exposure through GLDW and GDXW.
Learn more about GLDW and GDXW.
Explore the WeeklyPay™ ETF Suite: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/weeklypay-etfs
Glossary:
The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. The index is calculated and maintained by the American Stock Exchange
Gold performance measured using GOLDS Comdty in Bloomberg.
International reserves are liquid assets held by a country's central bank or other monetary authority in order to implement monetary policies effecting the country's currency exchange rate and ensuring the payment of its imports. The assets include foreign currency and foreign denominated bonds, gold reserves, SDRs (special drawing rights) and the IMF reserve position.
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